Given a dearth of competitive state-wide races in Idaho, abortion may be the hottest topic on this year’s ballot.
Idaho has one of the strictest laws in the U.S. limiting abortions. Passed in 2020 before the 2022 Dobbs decision by the U.S. Supreme Court, Idaho law restricts abortions to narrow cases: 1) when a physician determines that one is necessary to prevent the mother’s death or 2) during the first trimester for an incident of rape or incest reported to law enforcement.
Idaho’s law is facing a serious effort to overturn. Idahoans United for Women and Families is the group working to get an Idaho initiative to do that on November’s ballot. Nearly 71,000 verified signatures are required to make the ballot and backers claim they have collected over 63,000 so far. Enough signatures must be submitted by April 30.
According to a just released BSU Idaho Public Policy Survey, Idaho voters are likely to overturn the current law if the initiative makes the ballot. In that poll 61% of Idahoans support the initiative while only 28% oppose. The results also show that 45% of Idaho Republicans, 90% of Democrats and 66% of Independents back the effort. That BSU poll has a track record of being an early indicator. In early 2024 it foreshadowed the defeat of the open primary/ranked choice voting initiative showing it failing 35% to 50%.
While the mother may not be charged with a crime under the Idaho statute, anyone who performs or attempts to perform an abortion may be charged with a felony and subject to imprisonment for two to five years. Idaho medical community has been raising the alarm because obstetric doctors are fleeing the state, with the overall number down 35% since Dobbs.
Based on points already made by the proponents, their arguments are likely to focus on a women’s right to choose, that current law puts doctors too much at risk, and that the law is too restrictive by not having a exemption for the mother’s health and too tight exceptions for rape or incest.
There is no publicly available Idaho data on these points. But, an AP-NORC survey unveiled last July shows that 89% of Americans support allowing abortion if the mother’s health would be seriously endangered by the pregnancy. A very high percentage, 86%, believe access should be available on account of pregnancy caused by rape or incest. And, 55% support protecting doctors from fines or imprisonment for being involved with abortion. I
That implies that, besides the general argument for choice, the protection of a mother’s health, leniency for reasons of rape and incest, and protecting medical personal from liability have power with voters. Presumably Idaho’s electorate has similar views but maybe with a bit less intensity.
For those who want to protect Idaho’s current anti-abortion stance the looming campaign poses a dilemma. One approach is to focus on an all-out defense of the current law. As indicated, that could be challenging based on where Idaho voters are already.
The other approach would be to change Idaho’s current statute before November to add the mother’s health as an allowable reason for an abortion, make qualification for the rape and incest exceptions easier, and explore limiting liability for the medical community. Those modifications would enhance the chance of prevailing with Idaho voters.
Regardless, expect this measure to draw big money, substantial focus from the news media (both state and national), and considerable public attention.
About the Author
Steve Taggart is an attorney in Idaho Falls and has worked in Republican politics since his teens, both in campaigns and for elected officials, including running a congressional office.
Might make the ballot because of signatures from the Boise area , but it will never pass.