Republican Primary Surprises

Guest Editorial by Steve Taggart

In even years, May’s GOP primary election often determines the eventual officeholder.

This recent Republican primary provided plenty of surprises and insights into the Idaho electorate. Here are a few that stood out to me.

First, Idaho voters showed up in surprising numbers. I wrote a bit back that I expected light turnout. I was wrong. The latest numbers from the Idaho Secretary of State indicates 30% of Idaho registered voters cast a ballot. That was only 2 points shy of the turnout in 2022 when we had far more big, contested races.

That is surprising in that there were no major competitive races this year. Governor Little drew a bevy of GOP challengers, but none were particularly viable. The closest was Mark Fitzpatrick who got the backing of the hard right but only got 29%, 30 points less than Little. Neither Senator Risch, nor Rep. Fulcher of Simpson had significant opposition. The real battles were local legislative and county contests.

Second, the turnout may have been predominately driven by spending in the legislative races. An astounding $3.76 million in independence expenditures poured into Idaho House and Senate races, according to the Idaho Secretary of State database. A significant portion of those were fueled by out-of-state sources. Candidates also raised roughly equivalent sums.

Third, rather than advancing as they have the past few cycles, the hard right Republicans lost ground in the Idaho Legislature. Five of the so-called “Gang of Eight” are out.

Fourth, the hard right’s bastion is clearly North Idaho. The more mainstream faction of the GOP toppled four hard right legislators in the Magic Valley and blocked their efforts in East Idaho to return former ultra-conservative legislators to office. Arguably, that makes Treasure Valley the swing part of Idaho for the future.

Fifth, enormous amounts of money were wasted on ineffective independent expenditures. For instance, Representative Josh Tanner and Representative Jordan Redman both created political action committees, Summit PAC, and 36-18-1, that between them spent $550,000. Much of those funds was wasted on inane web display ads that didn’t convey any focused message at all.

Idahoans in key races were inundated by massive amounts of direct mail and text messages. I just spoke to a civic group and they complained about the poorly done, overly harsh mail pieces sent out by some of the independent expenditure groups. Most indicated they tossed them in batches and found them plain annoying. I contend that the most effective materials are contrast in nature. And, the effective ones are designed to be neutral enough that either side’s supporters would be more likely to support their candidate. The more tilted the messaging the less effective the piece in my estimation.

Sixth, looking ahead, there is a fair likelihood that this will be Governor Little’s last term. Lieutenant Governor Scott Bedke outpolled Attorney General Raul Labrador in East Idaho and the Magic Valley. Labrador was generally stronger in North Idaho. That may foreshadow the bases of each in a potential future contest.

Based on past history many general election winners will be those who prevailed in the Republican primary. And, the big, marquee races in November are likely to be the abortion initiative and, if it makes the ballot, marijuana legalization. Those will create significant interest.

Steve Taggart is an attorney in Idaho Falls and has worked in Republican politics since his teens, both in campaigns and for elected officials, including running a congressional office.