May’s important GOP primaries will be shaped at the local level, not by major races

Guest Editorial by Steve Taggart

Each even numbered election year, given Idaho’s heavy Republican tilt, the May GOP primary is important in deciding the composition of Idaho political leadership. This year’s Republican primary on May 19^th is different because there are no big races to attract attention and get voters to the polls.

Idaho’s window to file for major Idaho races just closed. And, there is a remarkable lack of significant, higher level contests on the Republican side.

First, the federal offices. Republican U.S. Senator Jim Risch has three opponents, none well known. Congressman Russ Fulcher and Congressman Mike Simpson each have two primary opponents, each also with little or no name identification. There may be a bit more drama in the November general election but not in May.

Second, and more important, at the statewide level, Governor Brad Little has seven Republicans opposing him, all the political equivalent of “political midgets” who seem to be running for attention, not to win.

Lieutenant Governor Scott Bedke, Attorney General Raul Labrador and Secretary of State Phil McGrane are all unopposed for the Republican nomination for their respective office.

Overall, Idaho’s Republican Party has not a single statewide or federal race that is seriously contested in the primary. As a result, the major candidates are unlikely to spend much money motivating Idaho voters to show up at the polls on May 19^th.

That is a recipe for low turnout and has majory implications for lower level races.

The best way to understand the impact is to compare to 2022. That year, Governor Little was fiercely challenged by then-Lt. Governor Janice McGeachin and there were also substantial contests for lieutenant governor, attorney general and secretary of state. Statewide primary turnout, given the attention and campaign spending, ended up with 32.5% of registered voters voting. This year, with no serious statewide or federal races, the turnout should be substantially lower.

The only real action for the May 19^th GOP primary is at the legislative level and county level.

Even those races will be a bit subdued. A review of those who filed for the Idaho Legislature shows Republican nomination contests in only 15 of Idaho’s 35 state senate districts and in 34 of 70 state house districts or 49 overall contested races. In 2024, there were 55 contested races and 15 Republican incumbents fell in the primary.

This environment poses a challenge to this year’s Republican candidates. In the past they could expect roughly a third of voters to show up because of the attention generated by higher-level races. Not so in 2026.

To win, a local campaign this year must try to figure out who is likely to turnout for a relatively low interest primary contest. That is tricky. And, yet essential. Each candidate will want to focus their limited funds on those who will vote, rather than the broader electorate.

The second, significant challenge is a harder calculation, specifically who to try to turn out to vote who is not otherwise inclined. Winning campaigns will focus on narrow segments of the electorate and not only seek their support but also have a plan to motivate those favorable voters to actually vote. That is usually an expensive proposition and will stretch limited campaign budgets.

Successful campaigns will figure out how to do both tasks better than their opponents. Those who don’t will be doing concession calls on May 19^th.

About the Author
Steve Taggart is an attorney in Idaho Falls and has worked in Republican politics since his teens, both in campaigns and for elected officials, including running a congressional office.