In five years, the next U.S. census will be held. And, for the first time since the 1910 census, Idaho is set to get a new seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. For more than 100 years Idaho has had only two House members. But, we are set to gain another.
Idaho barely missed gaining a new seat in 2020, only being short 27, 579 people. The latest U.S. Census Bureau numbers indicate Idaho is a shoe-in after the 2030 census unless something dramatic happens over the next few years.
Another House district will boost Idaho’s representation in that body by 50%. It will allow Idaho members to sit on more committees and increase Idaho’s national influence. It is a prize that will attract the attention of aspiring politicians.
Idaho draws its district lines through a Redistricting Commission with equal numbers of Democrats and Republican. It was established by a constitutional amendment in 1994. The one after the 2030 election will have an interesting challenge.
For the last few decades, Idaho’s U.S. House district lines have been drawn mostly by shifting the line in Ada County. A third new seat adds a major twist.
With three districts, the Commission will need to determine what do with Treasure Valley’s massive population center.
Does the Commission create a new district exclusively in Treasure Valley or divide Treasure Valley into three parts, with a section in each of Idaho’s congressional districts?
For instance, based on current population, three nearly equal districts could be created by putting all of Ada, Elmore and roughly one-third of Canyon County in a single district. The north and western district would stretch from Boundary County on the Canadian border all the way to the Boise area, taking in not quite two-thirds of Canyon County and also Owyhee County and Boise County in the Southeastern part of the State. The third district could be all of Magic Valley and Eastern Idaho.
That would make a relatively urban district in Treasure Valley, a northern and western one where both Canyon County and Kootenai would be the largest players and district in the East dominated by urban counties like Twin Falls, Bannock and Bonneville but with lots of rural votes.
But, that is based on current numbers. Ada County and Canyon County continue to grow rapidly. That probably means adjustments will be necessary, probably increasing their influence.
But, the Commission could take a completely different approach. For instance, one possibility would be to split Ada County up, like it is today, between two or even three districts and then connecting those pieces with other parts of the State.
Some might even try to alter the process by trying to reconfigure the Commission. In 2019 one proposed constitutional amendment suggested giving the governor the ability to appoint a member of the Commission, which would have placed it in Republican control. That measure failed. We may a similar attempt in the next few years, especially if our current hyper-partisan atmosphere persists.
With Idaho set to have a significant turnover in its political offices in the next few years, as our political figures age, Idaho’s new third congressional district will be one of the sought after prizes.
About the Author
Steve Taggart is an attorney in Idaho Falls and has worked in Republican politics since his teens, both in campaigns and for elected officials, including running a congressional office.
It's exciting to get a new congressional seat. I hope the redistricting commission remains ethical and does its best to fairly represent urban and rural voters while balancing the political affiliations.
Can’t wait to watch the gerrymandering gymnastics on this.